Friday, May 28, 2004
Rob Heinsoo on Chase Figures
Rob Heinsoo in this thread:
For what it's worth, it would never have occurred to me that someone would consider anything in Giants of Legend a chase mini.
So far as most of us involved with minis use the term here at WotC, a chase mini is something that's rarer than a rare. All our rares are equally rare. The Huge rares are approximately (not precisely) as rare as our smaller rares. You're likely to get one of each rare in 23-24 boxes.![]()
Comments:
You know, I have to say this comment really put me in a mood. You see, I have a good friend who does this - when confronted with a phrase he either doesn't think fits or finds to in some way demean him, he'll disagree with it. Then, when confronted with the defanition of the word, says "Well that's not how I define that word." Then he gives some bassackwards definition, or a slightly modified one, that attempts to lessen the impact of the word. As his nickname is Weasel, we refer to this as weaselspeak. Now, I like Rob, I think he's a creative guy who's been involved with a wonderful product. But this here, this is weaselspeak. Not to mention, blatent fallacy.
"All our rares are equally rare." Bullhockey. What he means is "All our standard rare slots are equally rare." "The huge rares are approximately (not precisely) as rare as our smaller rares." Now that's a half truth. Yes, if you buy 23-24 packs, you will have as many STANDARD RARE figures as are equal with the set total...but odds are you won't have a complete set. But that's not an issue. With every rare being equally distributed, all rares are pretty much equal. Sure certain rares will be worth more or less in the aftermarket, but that's based ENTIRELY upon popularity, not upon availability. Thus DDM has yet to introduce, the "Chase" mini.
However, Huge Rares are different. You are NOT garunteed a Huge rare in a single pack, nor are you actually garunteed one at all, regardless of how many packs you buy. Sure, the odds say that with 1 in 4 chances, you should get one eventually, but I'm sure one of our many statisticians out there can figure out the probability of no huge rares in 23-24 packs. It IS possible. But lets assume average odds, and that Rob is correct...you will get 6 huge rares in 23-24 packs.
Okay. So I have 6 rare huges, odds are I don't have them all. So It's back to trading. But wait a tick. What the hell are they worth, aside from other rare huges? Well, apparently, they're worth 3 common huges. Hardley seems fair...3 $10 minis for another $10 mini. But hold on...most everyone HAS all of these huges, as you can comlete this subset with only 6-7 packs. Odds are, it'll take more than 3 to get you a huge.
Ah, but Rob says they're equal to Standard rares. Bullhockey. You can complete EACH set with the same number of packs, yes. But that doesn't make them worth the same. You can buy 1 pack and get any rare for trade...but you have to buy 4 to get the rare huge. Which would make the Huge rare seem to be worth 4 rares. Or maybe 4 rares for 3 C Huges and 1 rare Huge.
I'm going to stop here, because this is where the economic math gets strange. The next question is no doubt "But if 3 C Huges are equal to one Rare Huge then 2 rare huges are equal to four Standard Rares?"
So I leave this to you and Rob's Vague Chase rare definition. Chase rares are something you aren't garunteed in a pack, which makes them rarer than rares (which you are garunteed.) How are these NOT chase figures? Who is going to trade a Huge Red Dragon for a Rakshasa? Who is going to trade a War Forged Titan for a Huge Gold dragon? Who's going to trade a Rakshasa for a War Forged Titan? How much work, how many packs and how much strange math and bartering are we going to have to do to complete a set?
Rob, face it. These are chase figures. Despite the early statements that you weren't doing chase figures (at least anywhere in the near future) you managed to slip in chase figures only 9 months into the existence of the game. Stating that you define chase figures differently doesn't change the fact that we're being shortchanged.
Massawyrm, Fan since announcement
"All our rares are equally rare." Bullhockey. What he means is "All our standard rare slots are equally rare." "The huge rares are approximately (not precisely) as rare as our smaller rares." Now that's a half truth. Yes, if you buy 23-24 packs, you will have as many STANDARD RARE figures as are equal with the set total...but odds are you won't have a complete set. But that's not an issue. With every rare being equally distributed, all rares are pretty much equal. Sure certain rares will be worth more or less in the aftermarket, but that's based ENTIRELY upon popularity, not upon availability. Thus DDM has yet to introduce, the "Chase" mini.
However, Huge Rares are different. You are NOT garunteed a Huge rare in a single pack, nor are you actually garunteed one at all, regardless of how many packs you buy. Sure, the odds say that with 1 in 4 chances, you should get one eventually, but I'm sure one of our many statisticians out there can figure out the probability of no huge rares in 23-24 packs. It IS possible. But lets assume average odds, and that Rob is correct...you will get 6 huge rares in 23-24 packs.
Okay. So I have 6 rare huges, odds are I don't have them all. So It's back to trading. But wait a tick. What the hell are they worth, aside from other rare huges? Well, apparently, they're worth 3 common huges. Hardley seems fair...3 $10 minis for another $10 mini. But hold on...most everyone HAS all of these huges, as you can comlete this subset with only 6-7 packs. Odds are, it'll take more than 3 to get you a huge.
Ah, but Rob says they're equal to Standard rares. Bullhockey. You can complete EACH set with the same number of packs, yes. But that doesn't make them worth the same. You can buy 1 pack and get any rare for trade...but you have to buy 4 to get the rare huge. Which would make the Huge rare seem to be worth 4 rares. Or maybe 4 rares for 3 C Huges and 1 rare Huge.
I'm going to stop here, because this is where the economic math gets strange. The next question is no doubt "But if 3 C Huges are equal to one Rare Huge then 2 rare huges are equal to four Standard Rares?"
So I leave this to you and Rob's Vague Chase rare definition. Chase rares are something you aren't garunteed in a pack, which makes them rarer than rares (which you are garunteed.) How are these NOT chase figures? Who is going to trade a Huge Red Dragon for a Rakshasa? Who is going to trade a War Forged Titan for a Huge Gold dragon? Who's going to trade a Rakshasa for a War Forged Titan? How much work, how many packs and how much strange math and bartering are we going to have to do to complete a set?
Rob, face it. These are chase figures. Despite the early statements that you weren't doing chase figures (at least anywhere in the near future) you managed to slip in chase figures only 9 months into the existence of the game. Stating that you define chase figures differently doesn't change the fact that we're being shortchanged.
Massawyrm, Fan since announcement
From a statistician (sort-of):
Probabilty of getting no rare huge in 24 bosters = .100339% (assuming an infinite number of boosters)
Eanwulf - sitefan
Post a Comment
Probabilty of getting no rare huge in 24 bosters = .100339% (assuming an infinite number of boosters)
Eanwulf - sitefan
Rob Heinsoo on Chase Figures